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EYE ON THE INDUSTRY
Future Trends Supplementals Should Watch
By Charlene Gaynor
CEO, The Association of Educational Publishers
For years, experts have predicted revolutionary changes in
education brought about by factors such as teacher retirement,
the No Child Left Behind Act, one-to-one computing, and digital
delivery of educational content. In many cases these changes
have already begun to take place, but in some instances, developments
have yet to be seen.
This article is the second in a series authored by AEP's Chief
Executive Officer Charlene Gaynor outlining future trends that
promise to have the greatest impact on publishers of educational
materials. In this installment, Gaynor examines shifting
demographics within the education system and how they may affect
school curricula and school spending trends.
Teacher Retirement
Teacher retirement has long been considered
a major threat to the integrity of the American education system. For
years experts have warned that as baby-boomers approach their 50s
and 60s and the average age of the profession increases, the rate
of retirement will skyrocket, leaving thousands of schools with
a dearth of qualified, committed educators.
While it's true the predicted mass exodus has yet to materialize,
the fact of the matter is more teachers than ever before will be
reaching the age of retirement in the next ten years. This
translates into an influx of younger teachers that we know nearly
nothing about. They will certainly be more tech-savvy and
possibly more progressive in nature, but they will also lack the
experience and training of the teachers they are replacing. What
will they value in a brand? What will they look for in their
educational products? Will they be less qualified, less committed? Publishers
of educational materials will have to keep a close eye on their
new crop of customers and work to establish new ties and loyalties.
The Achievement Gap
It has become increasingly evident that American
high school students are graduating unprepared or under-prepared
for college and the workforce. According to a report published last year by the
National Governors Association (NGA), the United States has one
of the lowest high school graduation rates among industrialized
nations. The Department of Education has pledged to address
the issue by bringing NCLB-style accountability to the secondary
school level, while at the state and local levels, the NGA has
proposed a plan of action that includes revising academic standards
and developing state assessments that align with the expectations
of college and the workplace.
Many believe that more intense scrutiny of student performance
at the secondary level will bring renewed attention to the volatile
issue of school equity. Like teacher retirement, the achievement
gap between affluent and poor students has long been recognized
as one of the biggest problems affecting our nation's schools. Without
the statistical support of NCLB accountability, it has been difficult
to pinpoint the causes and effects. Armed with data from
achievement tests, administrators and policymakers will have a
clearer understanding of where funding needs to go. Educational
publishers will need to monitor the resulting funding and curriculum
shifts in order to be ready for emerging opportunities.
Administrators as Managers
The past decade has seen a gradual shift
in the role of district administrators, especially in larger, urban
settings. Superintendents
- now often known as CEOs - are expected to act as managers and
leaders of reform, while NCLB mandates hold them more accountable
for the progress of their schools. For this reason, districts
often look to the military or business world to find result-minded
candidates that will make good leaders as well as good public liaisons.
While these "untraditional" superintendents may bring
a unique mindset to school districts, they may also need training
in school culture. Schools that are run like businesses run
the risk of focusing too heavily on bottom-line results and losing
sight of the individual student. More than ever, your salespeople,
as well as trusted teachers within the districts themselves, can
be your greatest allies when it comes to accurately reading the
school climate and building bottom-up as well as top-down strategies.
Questions, ideas, or
in need of more information? Please contact Stacey
Pusey at 302-295-8349.
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The National Governors Association
Download
a PDF of the NGA report, "An Action Agenda for Improving
America's High Schools," here
"Looking
for Leaders"
The American School Board Journal
"Pittsburgh
district's choice for superintendent illustrates trend"
The Boston Globe
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